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Slightly below expectations, this figure should slow down tapering rumors

03 April 2017

Much economic data was published this week :

  • Robust set in the US with consumer confidence at 15y high and core PCE slightly above expectations.
  • German IFO as well above expectations but inflation on a very soft tone in Eurozone. This undershoot comes from Germany, Spain and Italy. Headline inflation was 1.5% vs 1.8% expected, and core inflation was 0.7%. This should reduce tapering rumors from European central bank. Regarding ECB, we must as well mention a rumor this week that ECB considers Mario Draghi’s speech was ill-understood by investors. This was taken as a dovish surprise by fixed income markets.
  • Chinese PMI was comforting, once more.

All in all, even if movements this week have been shallow, data was dollar positive and euro negative

We ought to say as well that oil inventories were lower than expected, and consequently the barrel surged. In the meantime, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries discussions seem to be constructive, which makes us think that the deal could be extended.

Last, Theresa May officially triggered article 50. Now starts a long period of negotiations. Some of our trades will probably be more volatile but we think we are well compensated for it.

Kinds Regards.

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