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Preview of ECB meeting

24 October 2018

The ECB will hold a press conference tomorrow and we do not expect any change to forward guidance.

We believe the ECB could modify, marginally, the Statement by dropping the sentence in which “incoming data” conditions the end of net purchases and points to a definitive end in December. We do not expect any details about the reinvestment program but we could have some information in the Q&A. M. Draghi indicated at the last press conference, that a taskforce was working on a new reinvestment policy. 

The global outlook indicates downside risks rather than balanced risks: Eurozone PMI, released today, suggests moderate growth. Nevertheless, the ECB is unlikely to change its neutral stance about risks, probably waiting for more data. Economic forecasts will be updated in December. The Inflation path points to a very slow normalization: price pressures are supported by wage growth across several countries in the Eurozone and should sustain more core inflation in the coming months. The ECB should stay confident on this topic: Mr. Draghi qualified recently inflation as “vigorous”.

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