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Post ECB commentary by François Rimeu

08 March 2018

Downward revision on 2019 inflation forecast pushes rates lower.

The ECB left  interest rates unchanged and confirmed that the net asset purchases are intended to continue, at the current monthly pace of €30 billion, until the end of September 2018 or beyond if necessary. 

As we expected the ECB dropped its pledge to increase size of QE if needed, pushing rates initially higher. 

The new macro-economic staff projections showed an upward revision on growth (2.3% to 2.4% in 2018) but a downward revision on inflation (1.5% to 1.4% in 2019). Even if the latest HICP figures were below market consensus, this comes as a surprise considering strong growth in the Eurozone during the last 3 months. Market reaction is dovish with rates lower than at the beginning of the press conference.

No other material changes.

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