My bookmarks

Pins are saved using cookies. Deleting them from your browser will delete your preferences.


Alger on the money - Inspired by Change, Driven by Growth. Leading Indicators Signal Stability

16 February 2018

Currently a number of forces are weighing on inflation in the U.S., allowing the Fed to be patient in its tightening path. Given that every major recession of the past 75 years has followed significant Fed Funds rate tightening or inflation acceleration, or both, we believe a recession is not imminent.


  • Short-term interest rates and inflation remain subdued, which does not signify a near-term recession, according to historical patterns.
  • Interest rate increases have come slowly—less than one third the typical pace. Additionally, the market usually does not peak until the Fed is done raising rates and the Fed believes it still has a substantial amount of tightening to do in order to normalize rates.
  • Innovation is a primary mitigant of inflation. Because we live at a time when consumers can easily compare prices across purveyors of goods, businesses tend to keep their prices down in an effort to remain competitive.
  • Contemporary labor dynamics also favor a low inflation environment. As older and generally costlier employees retire, businesses replace them with younger and cheaper workers, which keeps wage pressures down.
  • Lastly, globalization also depresses wage pressures by making scores of workers from around the world accessible to U.S. employers. An ever abundant labor pool prevents demand for labor from oustripping supply and keeps inflation from heating up.

Download Alger on the Money, A view on the U.S. Market 

La Française Group provides access to the expertise of a number of asset management companies around the world. To provide you with the most relevant information, we have developed an interface to present the full range of products available for your investor profile and country of residence.

Present yourself


Your country of residence

Your language

Your profile

By continuing browsing on this website, you accept the use of cookies and other tracing devices s as to allow you to receive information suited to your profile, facilitate information sharing on social networks, guarantee the best browsing experience possible and to create statistics. To find out more, we invite you to consult our Privacy and Cookies policy. Find out more.