Views and Ideas

Ahead of the ECB meeting

06 March 2018

We expect the ECB to revise just slightly higher its growth and inflation forecasts:

  • 2018 Growth forecast from 2.3% to 2.4%
  • 2018 HICP inflation forecast from 1.4% to 1.5%

It won’t come as a surprise for the market as ECB macro-economic projections are currently below market consensus. 

We also expect the QE easing bias to be removed (“QE can be increased in terms of size and / or duration”): we know the ECB would act if the outlook deteriorates but it is not necessary to be explicit when growth looks very strong. This would be seen as moderately hawkish.

We don’t expect new information about whether or not the ECB is going to go for a sudden stop in September or to taper during Q4 2018. 

We don’t expect new information regarding the exact meaning of “well past the end of QE”; the market is currently thinking about 6 months.

Les sites du groupe
My bookmarks

Pins are saved using cookies. Deleting them from your browser will delete your preferences.

La Française Group provides access to the expertise of a number of asset management companies around the world. To provide you with the most relevant information, we have developed an interface to present the full range of products available for your investor profile and country of residence.
Please indicate your profile
1
Country
2
Language
3
Profile
Your country of residence
Your language
Your profile
<p class="new-disclaimer__legal-notice">Before consulting this website, for your protection and in your interest, please read the “<a href="en/legal-notice/" target="_blank">disclaimer</a>” and “<a href="en/regulatory-information/" target="_blank">current regulations</a>” carefully. This information explains certain legal and regulatory restrictions which apply to individual and professional investors according to local law. By accessing this site, in my non-professional or professional capacity, I acknowledge that I have read and accept the terms and conditions of use. Pursuant to the application of the European Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (“MiFID”), please state to which category of investor you belong&nbsp;:</p>