Views and Ideas

The US employment report, above expectations, leaves the door open for a rate hike this year

09 August 2016

Key events this week were the meeting of the Bank of England and the release of the US July employment report.

Key events this week were the meeting of the Bank of England and the release of the US July employment report.Yesterday, the Bank of England has announced a strong stimulus package including a 25bp rate cut, extended Quantitative Easing program and corporate bonds purchase. Moreover, the British institution is ready to act again if needed and a further rate cut before the end of the year is likely. With this stimulus, the Bank of England wants to support the UK economy after the Brexit shock. This package was bigger than expected and the market reaction was logical:

  • Sterling weakened against its major peers
  • 10Y British bonds (Gilts) extended decline
  • Stocks rose across the world

In the US, the employment report surprised by its robustness. Payrolls climbed by 225K last month, exceeding all forecasts. The jobless rate held at 4.9 percent. Wage growth begins to show some signs of acceleration, with average hourly earnings rising a more-than-forecast 0.3 percent from a month earlier. After the weak GDP report of last week, it’s clearly a positive signal. The labor market is firming up as wages are starting to pick up. Short term yields increased today. We continue to think that the market is too pessimistic if the look at the pricing for the next rate hike before the end of 2016. We remain short on the US 2Y yield.

La Française’s Essentiel Markets brings you an insightful analysis of the latest financial news by François Rimeu, Head of Total Return at La Française Asset Management.

Les sites du groupe
My bookmarks

Pins are saved using cookies. Deleting them from your browser will delete your preferences.

La Française Group provides access to the expertise of a number of asset management companies around the world. To provide you with the most relevant information, we have developed an interface to present the full range of products available for your investor profile and country of residence.
Please indicate your profile
1
Country
2
Language
3
Profile
Your country of residence
Your language
Your profile
<p class="new-disclaimer__legal-notice">Before consulting this website, for your protection and in your interest, please read the “<a href="en/legal-notice/" target="_blank">disclaimer</a>” and “<a href="en/regulatory-information/" target="_blank">current regulations</a>” carefully. This information explains certain legal and regulatory restrictions which apply to individual and professional investors according to local law. By accessing this site, in my non-professional or professional capacity, I acknowledge that I have read and accept the terms and conditions of use. Pursuant to the application of the European Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (“MiFID”), please state to which category of investor you belong&nbsp;:</p>