My bookmarks

Pins are saved using cookies. Deleting them from your browser will delete your preferences.

Menu

No consumer confidence decrease (yet), UK economy is showing better resilience than expected

19 September 2016

The small market stress we witnessed at the end of last week remains live, even though risks drivers are not very clear to us. Less accommodative ECB and a potential Fed hike ignited the selloff initially.

Markets seem to be sort of lost to which direction to head for: 

  • Is it business as usual : with dovish central banks, let’s buy everything, high yield assets first
  • Or should we delever a little, wait for Fed and Bank of Japan combo on 9/21, considering some assets are beginning to be very expansive
  • Should we stay in the EM party, which has already gone up a lot and had significant 2016 inflows, but could be at risk in case of rising US yields?
  • How about Eurozone banks? Upside potential seems elevated if rates move higher, but in the meantime ROE and profits looks suspicious

In short, many questions, and conflicting signals, which explains why markets spent the week sideways This week we had: 

  • Disappointing retail sales in the US, second tier business indicators rather good and inflation above expectations
  • UK macro data still looking good (employment and retail sales). Bank of England met and kept its policy unchanged. They noted the economy is behaving slightly better than expected; they keep a dovish stance howeve 
  • Chinese data was good (industrial production, retail sales)

This market looks still perilous generally speaking, with heavy positioning, richly valued assets and central banks coming to the end game.

La Française’s Essentiel Markets brings you an insightful analysis of the latest financial news by François Rimeu, Head of Total Return at La Française Asset Management.

La Française Group provides access to the expertise of a number of asset management companies around the world. To provide you with the most relevant information, we have developed an interface to present the full range of products available for your investor profile and country of residence.
Present yourself
1
Country
2
Language
3
Profile
Your country of residence
Your language
Your profile
<p class="new-disclaimer__legal-notice">Before consulting this website, for your protection and in your interest, please read the “<a href="en/legal-notice/" target="_blank">disclaimer</a>” and “<a href="en/regulatory-information/" target="_blank">current regulations</a>” carefully. This information explains certain legal and regulatory restrictions which apply to individual and professional investors according to local law. By accessing this site, in my non-professional or professional capacity, I acknowledge that I have read and accept the terms and conditions of use. Pursuant to the application of the European Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (“MiFID”), please state to which category of investor you belong&nbsp;:</p>
<p class="new-disclaimer__legal-notice">Before consulting this website, for your protection and in your interest, please read the “<a href="en/legal-notice/" target="_blank">disclaimer</a>” and “<a href="en/regulatory-information/" target="_blank">current regulations</a>” carefully. This information explains certain legal and regulatory restrictions which apply to individual and professional investors according to local law. By accessing this site, in my non-professional or professional capacity, I acknowledge that I have read and accept the terms and conditions of use. Pursuant to the application of the European Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (“MiFID”), please state to which category of investor you belong&nbsp;:</p>
By continuing browsing on this website, you accept the use of cookies and other tracing devices s as to allow you to receive information suited to your profile, facilitate information sharing on social networks, guarantee the best browsing experience possible and to create statistics. To find out more, we invite you to consult our Privacy and Cookies policy. Find out more.