Views and Ideas

Considerable drop in unemployment despite low job creations

10 April 2017

This week we had many economic data sets published. US data with disappointing ISM non-manufacturing and NFP far below expectations

That being said, all was not dark since durable goods orders were in line and while job creations were soft, unemployment rate collapses to 4.5% in the US. All in all, this data was pretty neutral. Similarly in Eurozone, with final PMI close to flash estimates and industrial production (solid in Germany, soft in France). Last, Chinese PMI was on a slower tone, but nothing dramatic.

News was concentrated in the political/central bank areas:

  • FOMC minutes begin discussions about balance sheet reduction. This topic will be significant for markets for many months: how is the Fed going to shrink its balance sheet? At what pace? How will they communicate? What will be the impact on Fed policy rate path?
  • The European central bank continues to clarify its message, still dovish, with comments from Praet and Draghi 
  • Meeting between Trump and the Chinese President with nothing new so far 
  • And of course we must mention as well Philippe Poutou

Nothing new on the equity side, but fixed income markets rallied nicely with core bond yields a chunky 10bps lower almost everywhere

François RIMEU, Portfoliop Manager La Française Allocation
Head of Total Return & Cross-Asset 
The current management team may change over time.

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