The European Central Bank (ECB) is meeting this Thursday against a backdrop of ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East. Rates are expected to remain unchanged.
Our expectations:
- The Governing Council is expected to leave the deposit rate unchanged at 2%, a decision likely to be unanimous. For now, the pass-through of energy prices to core inflation remains contained at 2.3% in March (Source: Bloomberg).
- Communication is unlikely to shift, with the ECB maintaining a data-dependent stance and a meeting-by-meeting approach, while avoiding any firm guidance on the future path of rates.
Conclusion:
The ECB is likely to remain in wait-and-see mode, monitoring the indirect effects of the Middle East conflict beyond April, while reiterating its commitment to its inflation objective.
Completed 27/04/2026. This commentary is provided for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by Crédit Mutuel Asset Management are based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. These opinions may differ from those of other investment professionals. Published by La Française Finance Services, head office located at 128 boulevard Raspail, 75006 Paris, France, a company regulated by the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel as an investment services provider, no. 18673 X, a subsidiary of La Française. Crédit Mutuel Asset Management: 128 Boulevard Raspail, 75006 Paris is an asset management company approved by the Autorité des marchés financiers under n° GP 97 138 and registered with ORIAS (www.orias.fr) under no. 25003045 since 11/04/2025. Public Limited Company (Société Anonyme) with share capital of €3,871,680, RCS Paris n° 388 555 021, Crédit Mutuel Asset Management is a subsidiary of Groupe La Française, the asset management holding company of Crédit Mutuel Alliance Fédérale.
