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The topic of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been exploding in popularity since the November 2022 release of ChatGPT. This chatbot prototype developed by OpenAI is giving us a glimpse of how AI could revolutionize the way we live and work in the future. How does AI compare to other technological feats and how might this impact the global economy going forward?
- Moore’s Law states that the speed and ability of computers doubles every two years as the number of transistors on a microchip increases. When Gordon Moore wrote his revolutionary paper in 1965, there were only 64 transistors on an integrated circuit. Nearly six decades later, Apple’s M2 chip has approximately twenty billion transistors1, generating productivity that we could not fathom in the early days of integrated circuits.
- While the pace of Moore’s Law is impressive, this pales in comparison to the speed at which AI programs can “train” themselves (i.e., how much computation they can utilize) by doubling every four months, as indicated in the chart above. Over a ten-year period, AI training grew by more than 100,000,000x faster than Moore’s Law.
- In our view, the speed of AI innovation should continue to accelerate, with the potential to significantly change how we utilize software and improve our lives. We believe companies that are at the forefront of AI innovation, such as the major cloud platforms or leaders in the hardware that drives the cloud technology forward, may benefit as we enter the next frontier of technological advancement.
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