The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its July meeting. Although inflation remains above the Fed’s target, with its preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, rising 4.1% year-on-year in May, the moderation in inflation reflected in June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report supports the case for keeping policy on hold.
Our expectations
- The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, where it has stood since December 2025.
- Chair Kevin Warsh is likely to refrain from providing any guidance on the future path of interest rates, in line with his usual communication approach.
Conclusion
The FOMC is expected to reiterate its commitment to maintaining price stability.
Source: Bloomberg
Completed 24/07/2026. This commentary is provided for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by Crédit Mutuel Asset Management are based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. These opinions may differ from those of other investment professionals. The information contained in this publication is based on sources we believe to be reliable. However, we do not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, validity, or relevance. Published by La Française Finance Services, head office located at 128 boulevard Raspail, 75006 Paris, France, a company regulated by the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel as an investment services provider, no. 18673 X, a subsidiary of La Française. Crédit Mutuel Asset Management: 128 Boulevard Raspail, 75006 Paris is an asset management company approved by the Autorité des marchés financiers under n° GP 97 138 and registered with ORIAS (www.orias.fr) under no. 25003045 since 11/04/2025. Public Limited Company (Société Anonyme) with share capital of €3,871,680, RCS Paris n° 388 555 021, Crédit Mutuel Asset Management is a subsidiary of Groupe La Française, the asset management holding company of Crédit Mutuel Alliance Fédérale.
