At its first meeting of the year, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep its key interest rates unchanged, continuing the stance it has maintained since last July. Its communication will aim to preserve maximum flexibility regarding the future direction of monetary policy, avoiding any explicit commitment or clear guidance on the path ahead. The lack of new macroeconomic projections during thursday’s meeting will reinforce this cautious approach. Risks surrounding the inflation outlook should be described as broadly balanced, despite ongoing divergences within the Governing Council regarding the medium‑term inflation trajectory.
Our expectations :
- The Governing Council is expected to keep its main policy rate, the deposit facility rate, unchanged at 2%, in an environment where inflation risks appear broadly balanced.
- Communication will remain focused on a meeting‑by‑meeting, data‑dependent approach, without pre‑commitment, and will emphasize monetary policy optionality, particularly in the context of the euro’s appreciation.
In summary: The ECB is likely to extend its pause, a stance consistent with inflation being in line with the target and activity remaining close to its potential, supported by domestic demand. However, it should reiterate that this wait‑and‑see phase does not constitute a lasting commitment.
Completed 30/01/2026. This commentary is provided for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by Crédit Mutuel Asset Management are based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. These opinions may differ from those of other investment professionals. Published by La Française Finance Services, head office located at 128 boulevard Raspail, 75006 Paris, France, a company regulated by the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel as an investment services provider, no. 18673 X, a subsidiary of La Française. Crédit Mutuel Asset Management: 128 Boulevard Raspail, 75006 Paris is an asset management company approved by the Autorité des marchés financiers under n° GP 97 138 and registered with ORIAS (www.orias.fr) under no. 25003045 since 11/04/2025. Public Limited Company (Société Anonyme) with share capital of €3,871,680, RCS Paris n° 388 555 021, Crédit Mutuel Asset Management is a subsidiary of Groupe La Française, the asset management holding company of Crédit Mutuel Alliance Fédérale.
