Views and Ideas

The FED, expected to clarify the impacts of the average inflation target on its monetary policy.

14 settembre 2020

Here is what we expect from the September 16th FOMC meeting:

  • They will leave rates unchanged;
  • The SEP (summary of economic projections) is likely to show upward revisions to growth and employment forecasts.
  • However, median projections will still show an unemployment rate modestly above the longer-run rate and inflation just below 2% even at the end of the forecast horizon in 2023.
  • The dot plot is likely to continue to show a baseline of no rate hikes through the end of the forecast horizon, though we do expect a few participants to show hikes by 2023.
  • The Fed is likely to clarify its guidance by signaling that future rate hikes will be linked to reaching an average inflation target of 2% as discussed at the Jackson Hole Summit. In our opinion, they have left a lot of work undone, including a description of how they will use their tools to achieve their goal.

Disclaimer
This commentary is intended for non-professional investors within the meaning of MiFID II. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to serve as a forecast, research product or investment advice and should not be construed as such. It may not constitute investment advice or an offer, invitation or recommendation to invest in particular investments or to adopt any investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. The opinions expressed by La Française Group are based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. These opinions may differ from those of other investment professionals. Published by La Française AM Finance Services, head office located at 128 boulevard Raspail, 75006 Paris, France, a company regulated by the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel as an investment services provider, no. 18673 X, a subsidiary of La Française. La Française Asset Management was approved by the AMF under no. GP97076 on 1 July 1997.

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