ECB policy on hold

As markets anticipated, the European central bank (ECB) is expected to keep rates unchanged in September. The latest economic data do not justify another cut, and the trade agreement concluded in July with the United States, capping tariffs at 15% for the vast majority of European exports, has reduced uncertainty.

Our main expectations :

• The deposit facility rate will remain unchanged at 2.0%, while the rates on the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will be maintained at 2.15% and 2.40% respectively. 
• At the press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde is likely to highlight the resilience of the euro area economy and inflation being aligned with the 2% medium-term target.
• The new projections should remain broadly unchanged from those in June: growth around 1% in 2025 and 2026, before rebounding to 1.3% in 2027; core inflation at 2.4% in 2025, converging slightly below 2% in the medium term (1.9% in 2027)

In summary : 

With rates now considered neutral, inflation aligned with target and growth proving more resilient than expected, the ECB is set to maintain a cautious stance. Future adjustments will likely be data-dependent, with decisions made on a meeting-by-meeting basis.

Completed 8/09/2025. This commentary is provided for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by La Française are based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. These opinions may differ from those of other investment professionals. Published by La Française Finance Services, head office located at 128 boulevard Raspail, 75006 Paris, France, a company regulated by the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel as an investment services provider, no. 18673 X, a subsidiary of La Française. Crédit Mutuel Asset Management: 128 Boulevard Raspail, 75006 Paris is an asset management company approved by the Autorité des marchés financiers under n° GP 97 138 and registered with ORIAS (www.orias.fr) under no. 25003045 since 11/04/2025. Public Limited Company (Société Anonyme) with share capital of €3,871,680, RCS Paris n° 388 555 021, Crédit Mutuel Asset Management is a subsidiary of Groupe La Française, the asset management holding company of Crédit Mutuel Alliance Fédérale.