Views and Ideas

Unemployment rate is unchanged but wages growth remains stuck at +2.5% year over year

13 December 2017

On both sides of the Atlantic last week, news flow was mostly about politics.

On both sides of the Atlantic last week, news flow was mostly about politics.

In the US, two good news:

  • Senate voted on Friday, December 1st its fiscal reform. This vote helped markets to erase completely the micro stress event we had on Friday afternoon due to General Flynn. Therefore equity indices opened last Monday at their new historical high. US equities have exhibited an impressive performance since Mr Trump’s election: +29% with very minimal pullbacks (-3% max),
  • Last week Congress passed an extension bill to avoid a shutdown until December 22. A bipartisan deal remains to be made on this topic.

In the UK, situation seems to be unlocked with a deal between the UK and EU. Brexit bill seems to be settled, as well as the Irish border and the European foreign residents status. At last! This deal was much longer to come than we expected. Now true negotiations start with a deal to be found on bilateral trade. The Pound moderately appreciated vs the Euro (+1.4%) following this news. 

On the macro data side, we had the US employment report. Unemployment rate is unchanged at 4.1%. However, we are again disappointed by stagnant wages (+2.5% yoy).

This week will be very busy: BOE, Fed, Banxico, ECB, SNB…

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