Despite a few disappointments, US earnings seasons starts well
25 April 2017
We had a blank week with little volatility and investors waiting for French elections.
Implied volatility came off slightly and Euro yields went a tad higher (+6bps) after Benoit Coeuré declared risks for the Euro area were not anymore on the downside, opposite to what Draghi and Praet said. Chinese data surprised to the upside (retail sales/industrial production/GDP), on the contrary to British retail sales.
Theresa May decided to call for new elections on June 8th to try and have a clearer majority, which she should get. This was taken positively by markets (GBP +2% vs EUR) and triggered some strategists to change their view on gilts and GBP.
US earnings are uninspiring so far with few misses (GS and IBM) but in general EPS are decent (75% are above expectations, it is in line with usual reporting seasons).
Last, US tax reform could/should arrive before end of year if we believe US Treasury secretary and the rumor that says D. Trump could have Obamacare reform voted again soon.